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Copper had a quiet month, with its range even more compressed than in September. Prices fluctuated between $5000-$5350 in October. The sideways drift was attributable to two variables, the first being the strength in the dollar caused in large part on renewed conviction (emerging last week) that the Fed will indeed raise rates before year-end. The second has to do with a stream of weak macro numbers coming out of China.
Although LME stocks have been dropping (off by some 50,000 tons in October), an open arb has prompted refined copper imports to rise sharply in September (up 22% y-on-y), replenishing Shanghai inventories to the tune of 30,000 tons in October.
Moving to the supply side, there is little evidence that Chilean production is retracing meaningfully in light of weaker Chinese demand; Cochilco reported last week that output is forecast to come in at 5.68 million tons in 2015, down only 1.2% y-on-y before it resumes its uptrend in 2016. For its part, the ICSG sees the refined market as being in an 8,000-ton surplus (as of July) and in a 10,000 ton excess year-to-date.
Copper prices rose 1 percent on Wednesday, supported by bets that demand in top consumer China is set to improve thanks to government stimulus, and by news that mining giant Glencore will deepen cuts in its output of the metal.
Glencore said it expects to cut 455,000 tonnes of copper output by the end of 2017. In September, it suspended copper output at two mines in Africa, removing 400,000 tonnes of cathode from the market.
In China, equities posted their biggest daily gain in seven weeks, after President Xi Jinping made economy-friendly comments and the government unveiled proposals for a five-year financial market reform plan.
"We're already seeing tentative signs that things will pick up (in China) but the market is on hold waiting for data next week on China's trade, which will give an indication on whether the strong (September) figures will be sustained," said Caroline Baine, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed 1.1 percent to $5,213 a tonne by 1233 GMT. The price hit the weakest in a month at $5,086.50 on Monday, but has held above a six-year low of $4,855 reached in late August.
Elsewhere, the dollar inched towards 2-1/2-month highs against a basket of currencies, capping gains in dollar-priced metals by making them costlier for non-U.S. investors. The dollar is being buoyed by returning expectations of a rise in U.S. interest rates and better growth globally, with markets awaiting Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for more clues on the outlook.
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Copper made fresh lows in August, breaking the psychologically important $5,000 mark and getting to a low of $4855 at one point. However, the extent of the decline was not as steep as what we saw in July, although this is of little consolation to producers. Basically, China-related concerns are weighing on prices, as in addition to the exogenous shocks of imploding equity markets and a devalued currency, there are serious concerns about Chinese end-user demand. Estimates we are seeing on the Chinese rate of growth in copper demand are in the low single digits and some are even speculating about negative numbers when 2015 is finally put to bed.
Whatever the case, producers are starting to respond. In this regard, Freeport McMoran said last month that it would shut one of its mines in Arizona and reduce output at two others as well,while also slashing capital spending. The DRC warned about cost-cutting by mining companies, while Poland's KGHM said it would postpone or suspend some of its projects. For its part, Codelco said it is reworking a plan to expand its key Andina mine due to falling prices and protests about the project’s impact on the environment, but surprisingly, Chilean production has remained virtually on track for much of the year. In this regard, although July output was off 2.5% vs. a year ago (mainly due to strikes), output for the first seven months of the year is still up some 1.7% from a year earlier.
In other news, the ICSG sees copper in a 4,000-ton surplus (through May) compared to a 537,000-ton deficit in 2014. For its part, Reuters-GFMS sees the copper market to be in a 477,000 surplus this year, a staggering number -- and quite a difference.
Today copper scaled a seven-week high on expectations of tighter supplies, though the rally could be short-lived without improvements in demand from top consumer China or more substantial production cuts. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at $5,351 a tonne in official rings, from $5,345 at the close on Tuesday. The metal used in power and construction had risen earlier to $5,434.50.
A gain of about 5 percent so far this week was triggered by London-listed mining giant Glencore's plan to suspend 400,000 tonnes of copper output from Africa. "It's mostly short-covering; some of these guys did not expect such a move to cut copper output," said Carsten Menke, commodities research analyst at Julius Baer. "It's price supportive, but the cut does not mean a market deficit. The recovery will probably run out of steam."
Price pressure is still being exerted by weak economic and demand growth in China, which accounts for about half of global consumption, and by the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for non U.S. firms.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at its Sept. 16-17 meeting, but many observers think it will tighten policy this year, which could reinforce dollar strength.
Over the next couple of weeks the market will discover how China's economy fared in August, with the release of a data including industrial production and investment figures. "We believe the multi-year slowdown in China continues and, given the lack of an immediate catalyst that could bring the entrenched bear market to an end for many raw materials, commodities including copper and iron ore should keep falling next year," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.
The bank said there is a risk that copper could hit $4,000 a tonne the final quarter of next year, though it added that such a decline is likely to prompt accelerated mine closures that should ultimately realign supply with demand.
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We attribute the latest selloff to a stronger dollar, fund selling and a market that still remains well supplied. On the latter score, Cochilco now expects Chile to produce 5.88 mln tons of copper in 2015, lower than its April estimate, but still up from 5.78 mln produced last year.
In addition, local Chinese production is growing and we suspect it is displacing Chilean imports. Indeed, Chinese refined imports declined 11% y-on-y to 1.68 million tons, but ore imports have risen 11% over this same period, fueling an equivalent percentage increase in local supply y-t-d, thus eating into Chile’s market share.
In other news, the ICSG sees copper in a 62,000-ton surplus (through April) compared to a 436,000-ton deficit during the same period in 2014. Price-wise, Cochilco is calling for an average copper price of $6106 this year before falling to $5950 in 2016. The latest Reuters poll has the numbers in opposite order, with an average of $5950 projected for 2015 year and $6250 for 2016.
Copper and other base metals slipped on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened on speculation that the United States was closer to hiking interest rates. Losses were held in check, however, after data showed activity in the services sector of China, the world's top metals consumer, expanded in July at its fastest pace in 11 months.
Markets were pressured by the dollar hitting a 3-1/2 month peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after a voting member of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee expressed support for an interest rate hike in September. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive to buyers using other currencies.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.3 percent to $5,205 a tonne in official trading, after closing little changed in the previous session but within reach of Monday's six-year lows at $5,142 a tonne.
Despite Wednesday's stronger data on Chinese services, slowing factory growth is still weighing on metals markets.
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Copper sank to a three-month low of $5642 at one point in June and although it staged a bit of a bounce during the last two weeks of the month, the complex still closed down. However, July has gotten off to a much nastier start, with prices off some 3% so far in the month, almost equaling June’s entire decline. We suspect that the particular weakness we are seeing in copper is partly on account of the massive selloff going on in the Chinese stock market, as this is presumably forcing many funds to shore up cash positions in order to either meet equity margins or perhaps average down further on some beaten down names. Things are not being helped on the copper supply side either. In this regard, May Chilean copper production rose 2.1% from a year earlier and is up by the same amount on a year-to-date basis. Local Chinese production continues to climb as well--up some 10% year-to-date. The comfortable supply situation stands in stark contrast to declining Chinese refined import demand -- off some 12.4% through May of this year, while overall Chinese refined copper demand is estimated to grow by only 5% in 2015.
Copper prices rose in this session, extending a rebound from a six-year low hit in the previous session, as Beijing managed to halt panic selling in Chinese equities, though underlying worries about Chinese growth persisted.
Chinese stocks rallied 6 percent after the securities regulator banned selling by shareholders with large stakes in listed companies; Beijing's most drastic step yet to stem a sell-off that has roiled financial markets.
European bourses and bonds made early gains as strong export figures from Germany and hopes that Greece's debt negotiations will succeed complemented the rebound in Asia and commodity markets, but sentiment towards copper remained cautious.
"We could see continued weakness in the coming weeks, with the Greek situation unresolved and concerns regarding growth from China, (though) there's a limit to how low copper can go because (global) growth will strengthen going into next year," Danske Bank analyst Jens Pederson said.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed 1.9 percent to $5,595 a tonne in official trading. It had gained 3.4 percent in the previous session, having sunk at one point to its weakest since July 2009 at $5,240.
Helping copper was a weaker outlook for the dollar after the Federal Reserve signalled on Wednesday that it might be too soon to raise interest rates. A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for non-U.S. investors. The dollar recovered its poise versus the euro, however, with attention glued to proposals expected from Athens for a deal to keep Greece and its banks afloat.
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Copper built on the late-April gains to move higher during May, but then topped out at high levels, trading between $6300-$6500 during the first half of the month. Prices then started to sell off during the second half, getting to a low of $6075 at one point last week. Some experts frankly think that the $1200/ton run up from the mid-January low of $5300 to the May high of $6500 was "too much, too fast" for copper and that a retrenchment towards the mean was overdue. Certainly, the fundamentals have not warranted such a spirited advance. For one thing, Chinese demand remains weak and although the latest trade numbers show April imports up over March, they are still down some 15% cumulatively vs. the year before. Moreover, much of this step-up in imports may have come about on expectations of stronger demand that may or may not materialize going forward, which explains why analysts are now penciling in a drop for May imports. The supply side is also an issue; latest numbers out of Chile show March exports fell a sizable 34.3% year-on-year, but mine production is down by only 1.7% y-on-y, as lower output from Collahuasi has been offset by increased output from BHP’s Escondida facility.
London copper fell below $6,000 a tonne to a six-week low on last Thursday, hurt by bleak prospects for near-term growth in demand and ample supply.
The seasonally strongest quarter for copper demand in top consumer China is passing its peak with factories eyeing a summer production slowdown, leading to expectations for lower metal consumption in the months ahead. "For copper, like iron ore, expectations are that demand will slow through summer. We don't see a major uplift from current levels," said analyst of UBS.
Still, evidence emerged this week that China's easing measures are providing some support to its economy, with recovery in housing sales and the service sector, which should underpin a demand revival for copper later in the year. China's property market is a key consumer of copper.
London Metal Exchange copper fell 1 percent to $5,954 a tonne, near the day's low of $5,951 - its weakest since April 24. Support was seen around the $5,930 mark, the 100-day moving average. In Shanghai, copper prices fell 0.8 percent to 43,400 yuan ($6,999.44) a tonne.
China looks likely to target annual growth of about 7 percent in its next five-year plan so it can hit ambitious 2020 goals, raising concerns that politics could trump a commitment to disruptive reforms entailing slower but more sustainable growth.
For now, one of the hurdles facing industrial companies in China is a dearth of credit, with banks, burnt by last year's commodity financing scandal, reconsidering their businesses. U.S. bank Citigroup Inc C.N said it currently has no metals financing clients in China and was reviewing the future of the business.
Elsewhere, Europe has lost some growth momentum and bond market volatility is here to stay, the European Central Bank said, pledging to see through its money printing scheme until its job of lifting the economy is done.
Traders are also eyeing the dollar. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Exchange strategists polled by Reuters suggest the dollar rally will regain momentum from next month, although its strength will depend on economic data and the timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
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Copper did not do much in April, fluctuating within a $200 band for most of the month, but then exploded over the last few days to close at over $6400, a five-month high. The move was devoid of any news, but largely driven by fund buying, a weaker dollar and growing expectations of more Chinese stimulus.
At the CESCO conference, miners discussed how much of an impact low prices would have on production, as well as on the expected surplus (estimated to be at a rather hefty 365,000 tons by the ICSG). Antofagasta’s CEO said he saw the surplus disappearing, as production retrenches, but other miners are keeping up, benefitting from new capex spending and extension projects designed to boost output. In fact, Cochilco has not lowered its 2015 Chilean production forecast much at all, with its latest number at 5.94 million, only a shade lower than its previous 6.0 mln ton estimate. And although Chilean March output fell steeply on account of rains, output in Q1 is still 3.4% ahead of last year.
On the demand side, China’s Antaike cut copper demand growth to 5.7% from 6.4% for this year, although it said stimulus measures could help boost offtake in the 2nd half of 2015. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of refined metal jumped to 306,000 tons, but Q1 imports are still down 18% y-on-y, perhaps because we are seeing surging local Chinese production, up almost 10% y-o-y. The latest Reuters consensus has copper trading at $6125 in 2015 and at $6528 in 2016, with respective surpluses at 105,000 and 164,000 respectively.
London copper slipped on Friday on a stronger dollar and worries over demand in top metals consumer China after weaker than expected trade data, with an upcoming U.S. jobs report also in focus.
China's exports fell 6.4 percent in April from a year earlier in dollar-denominated terms, missing market expectations, while imports tumbled 16.2 percent, burnishing the case for stronger stimulus in the world's largest metals user. "We're keeping an eye on China data, and expecting more stimulus announcements ... such as RRR (Reserve Ratio Requirement) cuts. It's quite possible that they will help support commodity prices in the near term," said analyst James Glenn of National Australia Bank in Melbourne.
The U.S. dollar recovered against the euro after German Bund yields retreated from their 2015 highs and optimism grew that the April U.S. labour report would show strength after upbeat data on weekly jobless claims. A stronger dollar erodes purchasing power for buyers of commodities who pay with other currencies.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was steady at $6,394 a tonne by 0634 GMT, closing flat in the previous session and eyeing an unchanged end to the week. But prices on Tuesday struck their highest for the year at $6,481 a tonne as markets returned from a long weekend and as a weaker dollar stimulated buying.
China's imports of copper rose 4.9 percent from a month ago to 430,000 tonnes in April, while exports of aluminium and semi-manufactured aluminium products jumped by a quarter to 430,000 tonnes.
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Copper did not do much for the first two weeks in March, but prices took off around the time of the Fed meeting when the dollar was finally knocked off its perch. The rally trapped a number of shorts, sending prices to a high of $6300/ton at one point. Reports of torrential rains in Chile did not help matters either.
Over the last several days, however, we have seen a slight retrenchment and suspect that we likely will remain range-bound over the course of April. Some investors think that the roughly $1000 ascent from a low of $5300 back in late February to $6300 is somewhat overdone given that the fundamentals of the market have not changed all that much.
In this regard, we are still not seeing any noticeable cut-back in Chilean production, which is up by 6.1% over the Jan-Feb 2014 period. Elsewhere, China’s refined production continues to rise – up 15.8% year-to-date through February and does not bode well for higher refined Chilean imports going forward. On the demand side, Chinese copper imports have fallen by 24% year-to-date in February and conc imports are also off. CRU expects overall 2015 Chinese copper demand growth to come in at a very modest 4%, down from 5.5% in 2014. Meanwhile, copper stockpiles held in Shanghai have doubled since the start of the year and LME stocks are up by a similar amount. All this does not make the case for a tight market, which is why investors see prices trading somewhere between $5700-$6300 in April, with most of the upside move being currency-induced.
Benchmark LME copper fell 0.6 percent to $6,030 a tonne in official rings today after a 1.4 percent gain in the previous session.
Physical prices for spot copper on China's domestic market have also flipped to a premium against front-month ShFE prices this past week, another sign of brightening demand.
German industrial orders unexpectedly dropped in February, partly because companies got fewer major contracts, after bookings already plunged in January, suggesting manufacturers had a subdued start to 2015 in Europe's largest economy.
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Copper substantially outperforming in February, though prices remain 7% lower year to date, and 20% lower yoy after falling from $7,200/t in mid-2014 to $5,350/t in late January (-26%), copper has rebounded to $5,900/t during the course of February.
Not surprisingly, the best performers in last month were the ones that were severely oversold, with Brent, oil products and copper being the ones that responded the most. Brent finished at just over $62/barrel, up 18% on the month for its biggest monthly percentage gain since May of 2009. WTI managed a much more muted 3.1% advance, widening the arb between the two contracts to a one-year high. In the base metals group, copper enjoyed a very solid month, finishing up 7% for the period, but the rest of the metals failed to follow its lead and finished lower.
Equity markets finished on an impressive note in February, with both the S&P and the Dow establishing record highs, while NASDAQ closed just around the 5,000 mark, a level last seen in 2000 during the heady days of the dot-com boom.
In macro developments, the US Commerce Department reported on Friday that the economy grew at a revised 2.2% in Q4, weaker than the 2.6% first estimated last month, but consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of activity, expanded at a 4.2% clip, its best showing since 2006. Most economists expect US growth to rise above 3% in 2015, citing a general healing in the US job market as being the main driver.
In Europe, we saw an agreement reached last month with the Greeks that basically kicks the can down the road for another four months. The two sides will now try to reconcile significant differences during the interim period. Meanwhile, we have seen a modest improvement in several key European macro indicators, prompting the European Commission to raise its Euro-area growth forecasts to 1.3% in 2015 and to 1.9% for next year, up from previous projections of 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively.
Copper was pretty much alone among the LME metals in terms of price appreciation during Feb, tacking on about $400/ton during the period. We suspect that a number of factors were behind this increase, chief among them, a bout of short covering. Additional support came from expectations that with the Chinese returning from their New Year break, fresh buying would set in; as evidence of this, analysts pointed to a modest uptick in Shanghai premiums, along with slightly better Chinese macro numbers. On the supply side, there is growing evidence that output is being cut, especially by smaller miners from Chile. For one thing, despite the Chilean cutbacks, the country is still expected to produce more metal this year than last, this according to Cochilco and indeed, Chilean output in January was up some 13% from last year. In addition some of the larger producers (like Antofagasta) are lowering costs thanks to a stronger dollar and falling oil. We see this in LME stock levels, which rose by 45,000 tons in February, while Shanghai increased by 70,000 tons. In March, we could see copper trading between $5750–$6050 and don’t see the weekend rate rise out of China providing much sustained support.
London copper firmed today, after falling more than one percent in the previous session, as easier policies by European and Chinese central banks outweighed concerns over Chinese demand. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange edged up by 0.11 percent to $5,843.50 a tonne by 1400 GMT, paring a 1.39 percent loss in the previous session, which was its biggest daily loss since mid February. The most-traded May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped by 0.7 percent to 42,510 yuan ($6,779) a tonne, but was off overnight lows of more than 1 percent. China's vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao said China's fiscal policy will remain proactive going forward, but added that deflationary pressure is not as intense as in Europe.
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Copper prices retreated by 13% in January and lost a whopping $700/ton at one point over a two-day period. The selloff was attributable to reports of put accumulation and heavy selling by Chinese funds, along with indications of a growing Chinese slowdown. The forecast from an investment bank calling for a $5700 low for 2015 was promptly blown out of the water and analysts must now be zeroing in on lower numbers, particularly in light of the $5353 intraday low reached two weeks ago. The latest Reuters poll has prices averaging $6,362 in 2015 and $6,779 in 2016, but these were compiled before the latest selloff and will likely be revised.
Meanwhile, copper miners, among them, Codelco, Vedanta and Antofagasta have all announced capital spending or production cuts, but whether this will be enough to tip the market into a deficit from an expected surplus (estimated at 96,000 tons by the Reuters consensus), remains to be seen. Certainly, from what we are seeing so far, this does not look likely.
For one thing, Chile is stil expected to produce 6 mln tons of copper in 2015, higher than the 5.78 mln tons produced last year. Furthermore, LME inventories have been moving sharply higher since Jan 1st, (up some 50,000 tons) and we are seeing similar increases in Shanghai. For its part, China imported a record 3.59 mln tons in 2014, but much of this took place during the first half of the year (pre-Qingdao). In addition, a good amount of imports may be going into Chinese stockpiles, not exactly a source of fresh demand.
Through all this, Chinese local production continues to grow – up some 14% y-o-y – and clearly outpacing local demand growth, meaning that imports will likely decline going into 2015. Despite this negative backdrop, we could see a steady period this month for copper as the market consolidates amid a short-covering rally and lingering expectations of a Chinese rate cut.
A $5350-$5800 trading range should prevail for the month.
London copper sank in this morning from two-week highs touched the session before as traders who bought copper on talk of fresh easing measures by China took profits after it cut its bank reserve requirements. China's central bank made a system-wide cut to bank reserve requirements on Wednesday, the first time it has done so in over two years, to unleash a fresh flood of liquidity to fight off economic slowdown and looming deflation.
"The market is not too fully convinced that this is the real deal in terms of boosting metals demand," said analyst Dominic Schnider of UBS in Hong Kong. "The focus remains on why they are doing this in the first place, and the focus is weak activity," he added. UBS expects copper to potentially test the $5,000 a tonne level.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had fallen 1 percent to $5,647 tonne. Prices hit the highest since Jan. 22 at $5,755 a tonne on Wednesday before closing with modest gains.
Physical demand remains weak ahead of Lunar New Year in China, traders said, with consumers reluctant to stock up given slowing demand growth and ample supply expected in the world's top user of metals.
Tempering appetite for risk, the European Central Bank abruptly cancelled its acceptance of Greek bonds in return for funding on Wednesday, shifting the burden onto Athens' central bank to finance its lenders and isolating Greece unless it strikes a new reform deal.
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Copper prices ended 2014 with a loss of 14 percent, their biggest annual decline in three years, on concerns that a supply surplus will hit the market just as Chinese economic growth shifts down another gear.
Losses in copper, the most widely followed metal, were matched by tin and exceeded only by lead - a market that was in surplus in the year to September - while nickel was the best-performing metal thanks to Indonesia's ore export ban.
Copper prices came under siege shortly after Qingdao, as the scandal removed the need for thousands of tons of copper to come into China as a financing proxy. To illustrate, in the four months prior to Qingdao, imports of refined copper reached 1.3 mln tons, up a whopping 56.1% y-on-y. A few months later, imports were running at about 10-20% below year-ago levels. The termination of the Qingdao financing option coincided with a sharp slowing in Chinese economic growth, with this one-two punch taking a toll on overall demand as well.
Year-end adjustments to market positions helped copper bounce off 4-1/2-year lows of $6,230 a tonne earlier the first week of new year, but it resumed its decline on Wednesday, ending down 0.41 percent on the day at $6,299 a tonne.
Copper prices slid to their lowest in 5-1/2 years today, triggered by a wave of stop-loss selling following a downward revision to global growth by the World Bank and big falls in oil prices. Benchmark LME copper plunged more than 8 percent at one point as traders slashed positions to limit losses, while Shanghai copper prices hit their "limit down" after falling 5 percent. LME copper prices had fallen to their lowest since July 2009 at $5,353.25 a tonne in intraday trade. By 1303 GMT, prices had pared losses to trade at $5,580 a tonne, still down 4 percent.
Selling also spilled into other metals, with lead hitting 30-month lows, while zinc and aluminium tumbled to nine- and eight-month lows respectively. "The market was very worried about slowing growth anyway so last night's big downward revision to global growth by the World Bank has probably stoked that fear," said Gayle Berry, an analyst at Jefferies Bache.
Oil prices fell 1 percent, extending a rout that saw prices touch a nearly six-year low in the previous session. Oil prices have lost more than 13 percent so far in January, in the longest losing streak for one year.
The World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2015 and next year due to disappointing economic prospects in the euro zone, Japan and some major emerging economies that offset the benefit of lower oil prices.
According to brokers Marex Spectron, speculative short positions in copper grew by 21,000 lots to 74,000 lots in the week leading up to 8th January. This represented a short of 47 percent of open interest, the largest speculative short in copper since October 2008, they said. Copper traders had been nervously eyeing two big put option trades at $6,000 and $5,500 per tonne, which they feared could accelerate the market's longest rout in years, they said this week.
Weighing on the metal this year, the global copper market is expected to record a surplus of about 390,000 tonnes in 2015, according to an industry group. That would follow five straight years of deficit.
There are also worries about demand in China, which consumes some 45 percent of the world's copper. Data on Wednesday showed activity in China's factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December, highlighting the urgency behind a series of surprise easing moves by Beijing in the past two months.
A top Chinese government think tank said this week that it expects economic growth in the country to slow to 7 percent next year from 7.3 percent this year.
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