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MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper started the month under the pressure of a strong dollar and demand concerns in China. After China's central bank did not change interest rates as expected, LME copper rose to $8714 as China provided new measures to support the economy. Although 3M LME copper rose after the Fed signaled it would pause interest rate hikes, it was unable to recoup losses as investors worried about demand in China, the main metal consumer. 3M LME copper closed the first week of May at $8580 with a loss of 0.18%.
3M LME copper comes under pressure from the 19th-week strong dollar and Chinese data. 3M LME copper 3M LME copper finished the week down 3.93% at $8243 after testing the lowest level since November 30, 2022 at $8136.5 amid rising global recession and demand concerns.
3M LME copper started the 20th week under the pressure of a strong dollar and slowdown in Chinese industrial production. After the central bank of China did not change interest rates as expected, LME copper rose to $8300 levels, with the expectation that China would take new measures to support the economy. However, the fact that the US debt ceiling negotiations did not reach a conclusion and the default concerns increased while decreasing the risk appetite. LME copper fell as low as $8088.5 on May 17. LME copper finished the week flat at $8242, down 0.01% on Friday, fueled by hopes that US politicians will sign an agreement to prevent default.
LME copper slumped at the start of the 21st week on concerns over uncertainty over the US debt ceiling. 3M LME copper tested $7867 on Wednesday, the lowest level since Nov. LME Copper offset some of its losses on Friday amid increased demand after the Central Bank of China (PBOC) funded the financial system through open market operations. 3M LME copper ended the week at $8139, down 1.25%, and ended May at $8110, down 5.65%.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $8426-$9183 in April. 3M LME copper slid to $8665 in the 14th week, fueling fears over inflation and higher interest rates in the US and the biggest consumer, China, as the Chinese private sector manufacturing PMI was announced 50.0 (expected 51.7) in March from 51.6 in February. 3M LME copper finished the week down 1.47% at $8861.5 as the slowing economic outlook and renewed inflation fears triggered demand concerns among investors despite supply uncertainty. The London Metal Exchange remained closed on April 07 for the Good Friday holiday.
The London Metal Exchange was closed on Monday, April 10, for the Easter holiday. 3M LME copper, which was opened for trading on Tuesday, April 11, found direction with the movement of the dollar in the 15th week. Supported by the sharp depreciation of the dollar, LME copper closed the week at $9044 with a 2.06% gain, after testing $9183, the highest level since February 23, on April 14.
Although 3M LME copper started the 16th week with a rise due to the Chinese growth data, which was announced above the expectations of 4.5% to 4%, the effect of the data was short-lived in copper as in the Asian markets. Copper prices slumped after Fed officials commented that US interest rates would be raised further as inflation still remains at "problematic" levels. Losses in copper accelerated, driven by growing concerns about Chinese demand. 3m LME copper closed week 16 at $8781, down 2.91%.
The 3M LME rallied early in the 17th week on the back of a weaker dollar, but remained cautious ahead of sluggish demand from China and the Fed's latest meeting. 3M LME copper closed the month with a 4.43% loss at $8595.5 after testing $8426, the lowest level since January 6, in the final trading days of the 17th week as US economic data supported the dollar and investors were worried about demand in the main metal consumer China.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $8442-$9135 in March. LME copper tested the level of $9135 on March 1, while the manufacturing PMI index in China was announced as 52,6 in the growth zone, above the expectations of 50,5 in February, supported by demand expectations and the depreciation of the dollar.
Global markets fell 6,8% in China's exports and 10,2% in imports in the 10th week and faced losses after Powell's announcement of tightening on March 7th. However, it strengthened the opinion that the Fed could return to major interest rate hikes in order to control inflation, which continued its high course.
LME copper faced losses because of weak import data from China in the 10th week with the pressure of the stronger dollar after Powell's announcement. Copper prices ended the week at $8777, down 1,64%, as fears of the US Federal Reserve's persistent interest rate hikes weighed on prices and improved supply expectations increased the downward pressure on the market.
Global markets started the 11th week with losses after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the news that New York based Signature Bank was closed, and Switzerland's Credit Suisse Bank crisis. After these, Wall Street banks took action to support the banking system and after the support to Signature Bank, the worries about the banking crisis eased, and the week ended with a slight gain.
Although 3M LME copper started the 11th week at a gain, it faced losses as the markets worried after the collapse of SVB, the biggest bank failure in the US since the 2008 financial crisis. Copper prices tested $8442, their lowest level since January 6, after the European Central Bank moved forward with a 0,5% rate hike on March 16. 3M LME closed the week at $8612 with a loss of 1,88%, although it was supported by the increase in risk appetite after the aid to the copper banking sector.
3M LME copper remained at a premium throughout the 12th week, supported by investors' expectations that the Fed will halt interest rate hikes, strengthening demand in main consumer China, and a weakening dollar. 3M LME copper closed the week at $8945 with a premium of 3,87% after testing $9095 on March 24, the highest level since March 2.
At the beginning of the 13th week, while concerns about a possible banking crisis continued, LME copper was supported by the decrease in stocks, but it was difficult to find direction. 3M LME copper traded between $8844-$9092 in the 13th week, although it did not stay above $9000 level for a long time and closed the week at $8993,5 with a premium of 0,54% and a premium of 0,15% in March, despite the decrease in the worries about the banking crisis in general, the hopes about the Chinese demand and the support of the weakening dollar.
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Global markets started February with a busy macro data calendar and interest rate decisions of major central banks. In the Fed's meeting, which ended on February 1, in line with the expectations, interest rates increased by 25 basis points. US markets started February at a premium after Powell's less hawkish statements. However, on the last trading day of the 5th week, after the non-farm employment data, which was announced to have increased by 517,000, above the expectations of 185,000, the markets faced sales as the Fed pointed out that it would continue its monetary policy tightening approach for a long time. On the other hand, on the Chinese side, manufacturing PMI increased from 47.0 points to 50.1 points in January, while services PMI increased from 48.0 points to 52.9 points in January after a 4-month contraction, pointing to growth.
Although LME copper was supported by the weakening dollar in the middle of the week after Powell's statements, it ended the week at $8925.50, down 3.72%, as demand in China remained stagnant after the Lunar New Year holiday and the dollar gained value after the non-farm employment data.
Global markets started the 6th week cautiously after the non-farm employment data announced the previous week. However, after the detection of a suspicious balloon moving from China to the USA via Canada, sales were observed in the markets as the tension increased as the USA lowered the balloon. In addition, the Chinese consumer price index increased by 2.1% in January, below the expectations of 2.2% on an annual basis.
3M LME Copper tested $8808 on February 6, 3M LME Copper finished the week down 0.80% at $8854, recovering some of its losses as hopes of recovery in Chinese demand and continued supply disruptions bolstered the price.
Global markets started the 7th week cautiously ahead of the US's January CPI data. Global markets faced sales as US consumer prices were announced in January, above the expectations of 6.4% to 6.2% compared to the same month of the previous year, indicating that inflation remained high, and Fed officials pointed out that interest rates will remain higher for longer than investors expected.
3M LME Copper closed the week at $9009 with a premium of 1.15%, after testing the lowest level since January 10 at $8786 with the expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Fed and the pressure of the stronger dollar in the 7th week.
Global markets faced sales as the minutes of the Fed's last meeting were dominated by concerns that the hawkish stance continued and interest rates would remain high for longer than anticipated. In addition, the US GDP growth was 2.7%, below the expectations of 2.9%, and the personal consumption item was announced as 1.4%, below the expectations of 2%.
3M LME Copper tested the $8684 on February 24, as the expectation of more interest rate hikes in the US raised concerns in the markets and strong dollar pressure. LME copper finished the week down 3.49% at $8694.5%.
3M LME copper tested $8670 the lowest level since January 9th on the first trading day of the 9th week as uncertainty over demand in China, the largest consumer, increased. LME Copper rose as high as $8947 on the last day of February, with speculators buying at low prices and hopes for a resurgence in demand in China. 3M LME copper after traded in the range of $8670-9260, closed the month with a loss of 3.22% at $8980.
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Global markets started the new year with a very busy economic data calendar, The markets were cautious by the announcements of the minutes of the Fed's meeting in December, pointing to a slowdown in the rate of increase in interest rates and China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December.
3M LME copper was cautious at the beginning of the first week ahead of the economic data to be released. On January 4, it fell to $8188, the lowest level since November 30, as rising coronavirus cases in China and weakening global industrial activity fueled concerns over demand. However, 3M LME copper, which rose with expectations that China's efforts to support its economy will increase metal demand, rose to $8624 despite the stronger dollar and closed the week at $8610 with a premium of 2.82%. The dropping of China's stringent "zero-COVID" measures sparked some hopes for better economic activities in the world's biggest metals consuming market.
Following the hawkish annoucement by Fed officials in the second week of January, US consumer prices dropped 0.1% in December, for the first time in more than two and a half years, despite expectations that there would be no change from the previous month. In China, announced consumer prices rose from 1.6% to 1.8%, in line with expectations.
3M LME copper closed the second week of January at $9240 with a premium of 7.32% after testing $9257, the highest level since June 16, with the support of the weakening dollar after the US data, as well as the hopes that China's reopening its borders will increase copper demand.
3M LME copper started the third week with losses, but it rose as high as $9550.50 on 18 January, the highest since June 10, supported by low inventories and hopes that demand in China will pick up later in the year. Although copper prices remained in a narrow band at the end of the week due to global recession concerns and the slowdown in physical metal demand ahead of the long holiday in China, they closed the week at $9342 with a premium of 1.10% on the back of the weak dollar and expectations of higher demand from the largest consumer, China.
In the 4th week of 2023, most Asian markets did not trade due to the Lunar New Year holiday, while the US GDP grew above the expectations of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, increasing 2.9% year-on-year compared to the same period of the previous year, and Tokyo consumer prices in Japan in January were the same as last year. With an increase of 4.3% compared to the previous period, the fastest increase in 42 years was recorded on an annual basis.
3M LME copper, which had a low trading volume during the week due to the Chinese holiday, was in the range of $9175-$9439 in the 4th week. 3M LME copper finished the week at $9270, down 0.77% after a week-long holiday in China slowed the rally triggered by demand expectations from the world's largest consumer. Although 3M LME copper traded in the range of $8188-9550 in January, it closed the first month of 2023 at $9279.
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LME copper traded in the range of $8210-$8629 in December. Although the trading volume was low in the last month of the year due to the holidays, the markets were active with the news that the coronavirus restrictions in China would be eased, the Fed's interest rate decision and the announcements made by the Fed authorities.
Markets started the month positively as the expectations that the epidemic restrictions in China will be eased and the economy will improve increased the risk appetite. The consumer price index, which was announced in the 49th week in China, increased by 1.6% in November, in line with the expectations.
LME copper started the 49th week with a rise, but fell to $8322 in the middle of the week due to the pressure of the strong dollar and concerns about global economic growth. It tested the level of $8618, the highest level it has seen since June 23. LME copper finished the week at $8485.5, up 0.16% on a week-on-week basis.
In the 50th week, US consumer prices were announced as 0.1% in November, below the expectations of 0.3% month-on-month. In addition, the Fed increased the policy rate by 50 basis points to the range of 4.25%-4.5%, and predicted that the target range for the policy rate would be above 5% in 2023. LME copper tested $8629, the highest level since June 23, finding support from the weakening of the dollar and the rise in expectations that interest rate hikes will slow the pace after the announcement of lower-than-expected US inflation. Copper prices finished the week down 2.51% at $8303, as concerns over an increase in COVID-19 cases in China and interest rate hikes by major central banks fueled fears of an economic slowdown.
In Week 51, markets extended losses after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the short-term interest rate to -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield band from 25 basis points to 50 basis points. Although LME copper fell to $8210 due to the increasing COVID-19 cases in China, negatively affecting industrial production and raising concerns about demand, it ended the week at $8378.50 with a premium of 0.91%, finding support from stimulus expectations and weak dollar to support the economic recovery in China.
Although the transaction volume in the global markets was low in the last week of 2022 due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, the markets were moved by the statements that China will ease the coronavirus restrictions, investors followed the weekly unemployment and consumer confidence index data announced in the USA after the news from China.
In the last week of 2022, LME copper reached $8520, the highest level it has seen since December 14, supported by the news that coronavirus restrictions will be eased in China after the 2-day Christmas holiday. Afterwards, it reversed its gains due to increasing coronavirus cases and recession concerns regarding the global economy, closing the week on the sideways negative at $8374, losing 0.05%.
LME copper ended 2022 with losses of 14.16%, as major central banks hike interest rates, the dollar appreciates, making metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, and demand concerns in China, the largest consumer.
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While LME copper behind a volatile month between $7449-$8600 levels in November, global markets were directed by the COVID-19 holders in China and the US dollar shaped by FED interest rate.
Copper prices, which have been under pressure for a while due to China's real estate crisis and Europe's energy crisis, tested the highest level since mid-September with a value of $8140 on November 4. LME copper gained 7.1% on November 4, its fastest rise since January 2009, expectation that China will ease its zero-COVID-19 policy measures, the weakening of the dollar and the support of a tight physical market. LME copper rose 7.6% in the first week of November, recording its best weekly gain since March.
LME copper slid as low as $7872 on Nov. 08 as China refused to consider easing its COVID-19 policy, and after weak economic data from China showed that production had been negatively impacted, risk appetite dampened.
LME copper tested its highest level since June with a value of $8600 on November 14, supported by expectations that China will support the real estate sector and ease strict coronavirus measures. However, LME copper, which changed direction with the weak housing data announced in China, increasing the concerns about the Chinese economy and therefore the country's copper demand, and the strong pressure of the dollar, closed negative for 5 days in a row.
The 47th Week agenda was the FOMC meeting. However, copper prices fell to $7858, the lowest level since November 4, as the new COVID-19 restrictions after increasing cases in China at the beginning of the week shadowed demand. LME copper rose as high as $8143 on November 25, finding support from China's real estate sector stimulus announcements and weakening dollar, after FED minutes indicated that slowing rate hikes would be appropriate soon.
In the last week of November, protests were held in China that the world's second largest economy, against strict coronavirus restrictions, raising concerns over the management of the virus. Copper prices slumped as low as $7850 as the uncertainty of the protests in China increased and investor sentiment diminished. LME copper, which started to make up for its own losses as China began to loosen these tight coronavirus restrictions after the protests, increased its gains with the support of Powell's statements that it could slow the rate hikes and the weakening dollar, and closed the month at $8285 with a premium of 11.30%.
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After sharp decline of mid September as the prospects of aggressive interest rate hikes globally and tightening monetary stimulus soured risk sentiment London copper prices started October with rose, supported by a softer U.S. dollar following weak economic data.
The dollar lost some support from a slide in Treasury yields overnight after data showed a slowdown in manufacturing, hinting that aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes are already being felt. A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.
LME copper continue to gained after the London Metal Exchange said it will restrict new deliveries of the metals from Russia’s Ural Mining & Metallurgical Co. and one of its subsidiaries on the first week of October. Metals shot up earlier on 6th October, but gradually rolled back their gains as the day wore on to finish mostly lower. LME news out late on 5th October banning UMMC metal resulted in a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. However, the gains began to fizzle over the course of the US session as demand concerns and a rise in the dollar weighed on sentiment. Intraday swings were quite large; copper moved in a $300/ton range. 3m LME copper hitted its highest since Sept. 13 at $7,879 on the 6th October. Copper changed direction at the same day and fall to $7,544 level. Copper in London continue to fell till 20th October, as better-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised concerns the Federal Reserve would stick with its rate-hike campaign to bring down inflation.
Strengthening U.S. dollar, while COVID-19 flare-ups in China, the world's biggest metal consumer, added to demand woes on top of looming economic concerns.
Copper prices fell on $7,341.5 level on 20th October because of worries about demand weakening at top consumer China amid rising COVID-19 cases and the country's persistently stringent coronavirus restrictions. LME copper changed direction again on the 20th October, after China amid reports of potential easing in its COVID-19 restrictions. Copper prices kept edged higher, buoyed by a weaker dollar amid hopes the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes would slow down, although economic uncertainty lifted demand pressure until 27th October. But on 28th October Copper and other industrial metal prices fell, worries over demand in top consumer China amid rising coronavirus cases.
Chinese cities from Wuhan in central China to Xining in the northwest are doubling down on COVID-19 curbs, sealing up buildings, locking down districts and throwing millions into distress in a scramble to halt widening outbreaks. Pulled down by a stronger U.S. dollar and fresh coronavirus cases in top consumer China, sparking fears of softening demand for metals, LME copper fall to $7,420 level and closed the month at $7,444.
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LME 3 month copper price fluctated on $7220-$8153 band on September 2022. Base metal prices had weak start to September as demand outlook was clouded further by fresh data from major global economies that signalled tepid growth. Copper prices came under pressure as worries about demand in top consumer China were reinforced by weak data from the country's factories and a firmer dollar. Prices lost ground on 7th September as the U.S. dollar strengthened further amid worries about a recession in major economies. A strong dollar means it is more expensive for non-dollar buyers to buy the commodity. Copper ticked up on 8th September, supported by energy-related supply concerns, with sentiment also buoyed by mixed U.S. jobs data raising some hopes of a slower pace of interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Prices of copper and other industrial metals continue to rose on 9th September, boosted by a weaker dollar, optimism about top metals consumer China and as persistent smelter shutdowns keep supply in check. 3M LME copper tested $8020 level.
Main issue for 37th Week was U.S. consumer price data. Copper prices fell 12th September, as traders grew cautious ahead of the release of the U.S. consumer price data that could give a hint to future rate decisions and the direction of global growth. Copper prices rose on 13th September, supported by a weaker dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data, LME copper edged up to $8153. But Copper prices turned lower on Tuesday (14th September) after U.S. inflation unexpectedly rose in August and pushed up the dollar as investors feared more hefty interest rate hikes that could curb economic growth and dampen metals demand. Copper reversed after data showed the U.S. consumer price index gained 0.1% last month, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast it would dip 0.1%. After the US inflation data copper started to falling trend. While hawkish stance of the US Fed will put pressure on copper prices in the medium and long term. Tight supply should sustain copper prices at highs in the short term. The LME copper cash-to-three-month backwardation hit a new high since the end of November 2021, reflecting tight supply in the spot market. Cash to three month copper backwardation tested $150.
Main issue for 38th week was FOMC meeting. Copper started to new week with concerns of a global economic slowdown lingered ahead of an expected interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a hefty 75-basis-point rate hike on 21th September and the Bank of England went for a 50-bp rise on 22nd September to control inflation. Copper prices contiuned to fall as investors weighed prospects of improved demand from China against slowing global growth amid rising interest rates and an escalating Ukraine war.
Fears of weakening global economic growth and strongest US dollar weighed on copper prices. The week of 39, 3M LME copper price tested to $7220 level (the lowest level from 21 July). After the sharp fall, copper try to gather remaining of the September. And the news from London Metal Exchange (LME) gave support to copper. Prices of most LME metals rose 30th September, as China data showed a surprise expansion in September factory activity and a possible ban on Russian metal delivered to the LME raised supply concerns. 3M LME copper closed September the level of $7490 with %3.86 losses.
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While European markets started May with sales, American markets started with a increase despite the pressure from the Fed meeting. After the Fed, US indices increased their premiums with the messages Jerome Powell gave at the press conference.
At the FOMC meeting in May, it was decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, as expected. The Fed stated in its statement that it would start the balance sheet reduction operation from June. Speaking at the press conference after the decision was announced, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the US economy is strong, economic activity is possible to show a controllable cooling, and they think that the economy can handle interest rate hikes, adding that a 50 basis point rate hike is on the table in the upcoming meetings.
The most striking point in Powell's speech was that he stated that the interest rate hike by 75 basis points was not evaluated now, and after this discourse, rapid increases were observed in stock indices. However, in the next two trading days, very hard sales were observed in major European indices and US indices due to the concerns of recession possibility.
After Jerome Powell said at the press conference that the US is not in a wage-price increase cycle, the employment market is quite warm and the US economy is strong enough to handle interest rate hikes, the importance of non-farm employment data has increased even more. The data, which had an expectation of 380 thousand in the headline, exceeded the expectations and was announced as 428 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, while monthly hourly earnings rose 0.3%, worsening than expectations of 3.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Labor force participation in the American economy was 62.2% in April, below the expected level of 62.5%.
CPI in the USA, realized as 8.30%, above the expectation of 8.10% in the annual data, and as 0.3%, above the expectation of 0.2% in the monthly data.
The fact that the data was realized above expectations had a negative impact on the US stock markets, with the fear that the FED might be more hawkish in its decision to increase interest rates. Investors continued to be concerned about the economic effects of aggressive rate hikes to contain inflation.
In PPI, the headline figure was in line with the monthly expectation of 0.5%, while the producer price index in the basket excluding food and energy increased by 0.4%, below the expectation of 0.7%.
Powell stated that they would continue to tighten their monetary policy until inflation falls, and that they will need to consider acting more aggressively if they do not see clear and convincing evidence that inflation is falling. After Powell's hawk statements, on Wednesday, May 18, US indices experienced a daily depreciation of close to 5%.
Global markets started the last week of the month with a rising reaction after the hard sales they experienced. Another agenda item was the rumors that the United States might reduce some of the customs duties imposed against China during the time of Donald Trump. Positive expectations for China-US relations also supported the positive mood.
The minutes of the Fed's meeting on May 3-4 also gave support to Wall Street, showing that officials continue to believe the US economy is strong.
According to the minutes, while all of the officials supported the 50 basis point rate hike, "most of the participants" stated that it would be "appropriate" to increase interest rates at the same rate at the meetings in June and July.
Market players, who learned that 50 basis point increases were agreed in the next meetings, in order not to be left behind in case of future economic weakness and there are no surprises in the Fed meeting minutes, did not spoil their risk appetite.
With the recovery, US indices Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed flat on a monthly basis, while Nasdaq lost 2.05%.
Eurozone April retail sales figures, on the other hand, failed to meet expectations, with data showing an annual increase of 0.8%, which was expected to increase by 1.8%.
The Bank of England, on the other hand, increased the interest rate by 1% in line with the expectations.
The UK CPI was announced as 9% in April, just below the 9.1% expectation, at the highest level in 40 years.
While the CPI in China was announced as 2.1%, above the expectations of 1.8%, the PPI was announced as 8%, above the expectations of 7.7%.
The pessimism was felt in the weak economic data from China in the middle of the month. In April, industrial production in China fell 2.9% year-on-year, against expectations for a 0.5% increase. Similarly, retail sales declined by 11.1%, well above the 6.6% decrease expected.
To support its slowing economy, China lowered its five-year borrowing rate (LPR) more than expected by 15 basis points, but kept its one-year LPR rate unchanged. The five-year LPR affects mortgage pricing, with most analysts surveyed by Reuters predicting a 5 basis point cut in both rates.
Oil, started May with losses as lockdowns in China, a stronger dollar and rising recession risk bolstered concerns about the global demand outlook. Afterwards, oil prices, which were supported by the expectations that demand, will recover with the gradual relaxation of some of the strict coronavirus measures in China, made premium closures, supported by the EU's plans to impose a ban on Russian crude oil and the approach of the summer season when demand increased in the USA. Brent oil was appreciated by 12.35% and US crude oil by 9.53% on a monthly basis.
Gold, closed at $1,838 with a loss of 3.13% in May due to the rise in dollar and bond yields supported by the Fed's pro-tightening stance.
LME copper, which rose to $9,770 after the Fed meeting, could not rise above this level again due to recession concerns, declining risk appetite and harsh sales in global indices.
While demand concerns caused by the quarantines in China weighed down the price, it fell to $8,938, the lowest level in the last 7 months, on May 12.
LME copper, which moved upwards with the support of decreasing stocks and weakening dollar in the last week of the month, as well as the news flow about the loosening of restrictions in China and the incentives announced by China within the scope of reviving the economy. LME copper ended May with a loss of 2.83% at $9,439.
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