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MARKET COMMENTARY
3M LME copper traded between $8714 and $9453 in August. On 05.08.2024, it tested $8714, its lowest level since March 13, as worsening demand outlooks in the world’s two largest economies, China and the U.S., led to a sell off of the metal used in energy and construction. It was supported at $9453, its highest level in nearly six weeks, on expectations that a possible U.S. interest rate cut in September would provide support for copper prices. 3M LME copper ended August with a 0.12% gain at $9251.5.
3M LME copper suffered losses at the start of its 32nd week as worsening demand outlook in China and the US, the world's two largest economies, led to selling of the metal used in energy and construction. Supported by rising copper consumption in China and expectations of larger interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve later this year, LME copper could not recoup its losses at the beginning of the week and finished the week down 2.82% at $8831.
Copper prices were supported by easing concerns about China’s economy at the start of a 33rd week. However, they fell on 13.08.2024 as a larger than expected drop in Chinese credits soured confidence. However, they limited losses as U.S. data boosted interest rate cut hopes. LME copper, which came under pressure after U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations on 14.08.2024, was supported by potential supply risks related to the strike at BHP’s Escondida mine. It rose to $9,184.5 on 16.08.2024. Copper prices ended the week up 3.92% at $9,177.5, encouraged by U.S. data that eased concerns about mineral supply and fears of an impending recession in the world’s largest economy.
3M LME copper, although it started the 34th week with a gain, fell to $9120 under pressure as investors ended their short covering rally and demand concerns in major consumer China continued. It closed the week with a 1.31% gain at $9298, as Powell's statements and good data from the US indicated that recession concerns in the US were easing.
3M LME copper started the week on a gain, testing $9453 on optimism that a possible September interest rate cut in the US, which remained closed for a bank holiday at the beginning of the 34th week, could help boost demand for the red metal. It fell to $9177 on 29.08.2024 as weak economic data and demand concerns in major economies weighed on prices. LME copper ended the week down 0.50% at $9251.5.
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3M LME copper traded in the $8,900-$10,000 range in July. The dollar, which weakened ahead of the China meeting and Powell's speech from July 15-18, tested $10,000 on 05.07.2024 on the back of rising U.S. rate cut hopes, stimulus measures and increased physical demand in China, the largest consumer. It extended its losses and tested $8,900 on 25.07.2024, its lowest level since March 28. 3M LME copper ended July down 3.61% at $9,586.
3M LME copper tested the $10,000 level in the first week of July, supported by the weaker dollar, rising interest rate cut hopes in the US, stimulus measures and the higher than expected non-farm payrolls announced in the US on 05.07.2024, following the increase in physical demand in the largest consumer China. Copper prices finished the week with a 4.01% gain at $9,970.
LME copper, which started the second week of July at $10,000, faced losses after the disappointing inflation announcement in China. It finished the week at $9,877, down 0.93%, also due to the increase in copper stocks.
LME copper, which started the third week of July at $9900, ended the week down 5.94% at $9290, under pressure from weak economic data from top consumer China and rising stocks in most global warehouses.
LME copper, which started the fourth week of July at $9,330, increased its losses as demand concerns in the largest consumer, China, continued, testing $8,900, its lowest level since March 28. Finding support from the losses in the dollar on the last day of the week, LME copper remained under pressure throughout the week, finishing the week down 2.34% at $9,073.
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3M LME copper traded between $9,485.5 and $10238 in June. It fell below $10,000 per metric ton for the first time in three weeks as weak demand in China fueled sales despite a weaker dollar in early June. It faced losses as a stronger dollar fueled sales, stalled demand growth in top consumer China and pressure from rising inventories, testing $9,485.5 on Wednesday 26.06, its lowest level since April 17. 3M LME copper ended June down 4.80% at $9,586.
Copper prices fell below $10,000 a metric ton for the first time in three weeks in the first week of June as weak demand in China accelerated selling despite a weak dollar. 3M LME copper ended the week down 3.18% at $9,748.50, weighed down by a stronger dollar and investors awaiting a key U.S. jobs report for clues on the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts.
3M LME copper fell to $9,680 for a 24th week as a weaker yuan reduced the purchasing power of Chinese buyers while high inventories and weak demand weighed on prices. 3M LME copper ended the second week of June up 0.25% at $9,772.50, although it remained under pressure from the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates only once this year and later than expected.
3M LME Copper fell to an eight week low of $9,551 at the beginning of the third week of June after data showed that industrial output in China, the largest copper consumer, was weaker than expected in May, while a stronger dollar also weighed on copper. The People's Bank of China said on Wednesday 19.06 that it would remain committed to its accommodative monetary stance and resolutely prevent the exchange rate from rising too much. LME copper recovered somewhat on the news flow, but finished the week down 0.95% at $9,680.
Copper prices suffered losses at the start of the fourth week of June as a stronger dollar triggered a sell off, demand growth stalled in top consumer China and pressure from rising inventories, testing $9,485.5, the lowest level since April 17. 3M LME copper finished the week down 0.97% at $9,586, despite the support of lower buying on the final day of the week.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $9.739-$11.104,5 in May. Although it started May cautiously, it tested the lowest level of the month at $9.739 on Thursday, 02.05.2024. LME copper, which rose after seeing this level, tested its all-time high level of $11.104.5 on Monday, 20.05.2024, with the support of China's real estate support measures and better-than-expected industrial data, and then faced losses under the pressure of weak demand in China and the Fed's hawkish minutes. 3M LME copper closed May with a 0.93% gain at $10.125.
Copper prices tested $10.208, the highest level since April 2022, but above the $10.000 level, as supply concerns highlighted by BHP Group's takeover bid for Anglo American and China's manufacturing PMI index reached 50.4 in April It faced losses due to the impact of profit sales and completed the 1st week of May with a loss of 0.46% at $9.914.
After the London Metal Exchange remained closed for Bank Holiday on May 6, LME copper rose as high as $10.118, boosted by renewed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year, promises of support from Chinese officials and increased risk appetite spreading through equity markets, China's improving trade. It completed the 2nd week of May at $10.040 with a 1.27% gain, supported by data and real estate support measures.
3M LME copper reached its highest level since April 2022 at $10.720 last week, as the inflation data announced in the USA increased expectations of an interest rate cut, the support of increasing Chinese demand and supply cuts, and strong Chinese industrial production data strengthened expectations for demand. tested it and completed the 3rd week of May at $10.715 with a 6.72% gain.
3M LME copper, after testing an all-time high of $11.104,5 on Monday (20.05.2024), supported by China's real estate support measures and better-than-expected industry data, ended the 4th week with of May a 3.56% loss at $10334, under the pressure of weak demand in China and the Fed's hawkish minutes.
The London Metal Exchange remained closed on 27 May due to Bank Holiday. 3M LME copper ended the last week od May down 2.56% at $10.069, remaining under pressure after Wednesday's Beige Book report showed economic activity continued to strengthen but inflation increased and Chinese manufacturing data disappointed.
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Copper prices showed an upper trend in April. 3M LME copper traded in the range of $8929-$10208 in April. The main reason for the rise is the expectations that demand will increase after possible interest rate cuts in the coming months in the USA, the closure of smelters in China and ongoing supply concerns, as well as the LME's restriction on Russian metals produced on March 13 and after the gains increased. 3M LME copper tested the highest level since April 2022 at $10,208. Copper prices completed April at $9976.5 with a 12.45% gain.
3M LME copper tested a 13-month high of $9397.5 in 1st week of April, as strong factory data from China and plans to reduce production at smelters in the top consuming region triggered buying and was supported by a weak US dollar. It gave back some of its gains under the pressure of the strengthening US dollar following the hawkish statements of the Fed officials and completed the 14th week with a 5.37% gain at $9348.
Copper prices fell to $9312.5 on April 10, in the 2nd week of April, due to the weak consumer inflation data in China and the strengthening dollar in the middle of the week. 3M LME copper rose to $9590.5 on April 12, with investors' expectation that demand would increase following possible interest rate cuts in the coming months, and completed the 15th week at $9407 with a 0.63% gain.
3M LME copper started the week with an rise after the LME restricted Russian metals produced on or after March 13. 3M LME copper rose throughout the week with the expectation that demand would increase after possible interest rate cuts in the coming months of the USA, and on April 19, it tested the level of $9913.5, the highest level since April 2022, and completed the 3rh week of April at $9874.5 with a 4.97% gain.
Copper prices tested the $10033.50 level and finished the 4th week of April at $9960 with a 0.87% gain supported by the weakening of the dollar, funds following the market with a rise following BHP's takeover bid of Anglo American, and supply disruptions resulting from the closure of the Cobre Panama mine.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $8427.5-$9174 in March. Copper prices started March with a gain, rising with the support of low level purchases after the PCE index in the USA was announced in line with the forecasts. China's state supported research institution Antaike announced that copper companies have agreed to accelerate the purchase and use of domestic scrap copper to increase raw material supply. Copper prices extended gains, supported by expectations of further supply disruptions after Antaike said China's leading copper smelters had reached an agreement to reduce operating rates, adjust maintenance plans and postpone new projects. Copper prices tested the 11-month high at $9174 and finished the month at $8872 with a 4.64% gain.
Copper prices fell to $8484.5 in the 10th week as investors were disappointed by the lack of new supportive measures at China's important political meeting. However, 3M LME copper finished the week at $8615.5 with a 0.54% gain after testing $8689, the highest level since January 31, on Friday, supported by the Central Bank's interest rate cut hopes, better-than-expected Chinese trade data and the weak dollar.
Copper prices rose for the 11th week ahead of a meeting of Chinese smelters. 19 Chinese smelters attended the meeting held in Beijing on March 13. The meeting took place after an unexpected supply squeeze in copper concentrate affected the profit margins of smelters. Antaike announced that copper companies have agreed to accelerate the purchase and use of domestic scrap copper to increase the supply of raw materials. Copper prices extended gains after Antaike said China's leading copper smelters had agreed to cut operating rates, adjust maintenance plans and postpone new projects. 3M LME copper tested the highest level since April 2023 at $9098 on March 15, supported by supply disruptions despite the rising dollar, and completed the week at $9074 with a 5.91% gain.
Although 3M LME copper rose to $9091 on March 21 due to the increased risk appetite after the Fed stated that it would stick to its interest rate cut plans for this year, it completed the 12th week at $8847 with a 2.50% loss due to the pressure of the strong dollar.
3M LME copper tested $8776, the lowest level since March 13, as investors awaited signs of recovery in demand in major metals consumer China, driven by lower buying and signs of stability in the Chinese economy after Chinese industrial profits improved in the first two months. It completed the 13th week at $8872 with a 0.28% gain.
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3M LME copper fell to $8127 on February 9, as US speculators predicted a decline in February despite reports that China was supporting its economy with financing measures. It rose to $8608.5 on Feb. 22, supported by a weakening dollar and hopes for a strong demand outlook in China, a leading metal consumer, following Beijing's efforts to stimulate its economy and real estate sector. This increase was not enough to compensate for its losses and it completed February with a loss of 1.59% at $8478.5.
In the copper market, which is guided by China and the dollar, the slowdown in demand before China's New Year holiday put pressure on the price again. LME copper increased its losses on February 9, falling to $8127, as US speculators made bearish predictions despite the news that China was supporting its economy with financing measures. It closed the 6th week with a 3.25% depreciation at $8189.
3M LME copper traded volume was low for the 7th week due to public holiday in China. Copper prices faced losses at the beginning of the 7th week under the pressure of the strengthening dollar after higher than expected inflation data in the USA and the Fed reducing the expectations for an early interest rate cut. Copper prices completed the week at $8472 with a 3.46% gain, as weaker than expected retail sales data in the US revived hopes that the Fed would cut interest rates in June and increased investors' risk appetite.
Copper prices rose to $8608.5 for the 8th week, supported by a weak dollar and hopes for a strong demand outlook in China, a leading consumer of the metal, following Beijing's efforts to stimulate its economy and real estate sector. Copper prices closed the 8th week with a 1.03% gain at $8559, on the back of a weak dollar and renewed hopes for a strong demand outlook in China, the leading metal consumer.
Indonesia, the world's top nickel producer, is currently reviewing applications from miners to grant mining quota approval for the next three years. The uncertainty in this process caused Nickel prices to increase by 7.03% in the 8th week.
3M LME copper gained ground at the start of the 9th week this week on hopes that the annual parliament meeting in top consumer China will pave the way for more economic stimulus. 3M LME copper fell to $8427, remaining in a narrow range, as increases in inventories in Chinese warehouses offset tightness in mining supply. 3M LME copper extended its losses due to the strong dollar and bad news from the real estate sector of China, a large consumer of industrial metals. China's Country Garden said on Feb. 28 that a liquidation petition had been filed, undermining Beijing's efforts to restore confidence in the real estate sector, which accounts for a quarter of China's GDP. Although 3M LME copper had difficulty finding direction towards the end of the week with the PCE index being announced in the USA in line with the predictions, it completed the 9th week with a loss of 0.43% at $8522.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $8245-$8704.5 in January. Copper prices tested $8245, the lowest level since December 6, on January 18, as data from China increased demand concerns and pressured by expectations that the US Federal Reserve would postpone interest rate cuts. When we came to the end of the month, it tested the highest level since December 28 at $8704.5, with the dollar retreating due to weak US labor market data before the Fed decision, and completed the month at $8615.5 with a 0.62% gain.
Copper prices started the first week of 2024 with a gain, supported by low stocks and increasing incentive hopes due to manufacturing data from China. Copper facing losses due to the uncertainties of US interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the dollar, it completed the week with a loss of 1.72% at $8415.
China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased to 0.3% in December, compared to the previous year, when it was expected to decrease by 0.4%.
Markets rose with support from the announcement of US foreign trade data as -63.2 billion dollars, above the expectations of -65.5 billion dollars. In the USA, CPI increased by 3.4% on an annual basis, above expectations of 3.2%.
Although 3M LME copper faced losses ahead of Chinese and US data, it rose to $8483 on 9 January, supported by low-level buying and a weakening dollar. It finished the 2nd week at $8295, with a loss of 1.43%, after testing the level of $8292.5, the lowest level since December 13, with expectations that the Fed might delay interest rate cuts following the strong inflation data from the USA.
In China, gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 5.2% in the fourth quarter, below expectations of 5.3%.
3M LME copper tested $8245, the lowest level since December 6, in the 3rd week, as data from China increased demand concerns and pressured by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will postpone interest rate cuts. 3M LME copper completed the 3rd week at $8380 with a 1.02% gain, with the support of buying from low levels.
Copper prices tested $8599, the highest level since January 2nd, in the 4th week, as expectations that the biggest consumer, China, will make more incentive statements to support the economy have strengthened. 3M LME copper gave back some of its gains due to the pressure of the gains in the dollar and the effect of sales from high levels and completed the 4th week with a 1.78% gain at $8529.
3M LME copper tested the highest level since December 28 at $8704.5 in the 5th week, due to the expectations that the Fed would start reducing interest rates before the Fed decision and the retreat of the dollar on weak US labor market data. It completed the month at $8615.5 with a 0.62% gain.
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3M LME copper traded in the range of $8238-$8716 in December. LME copper fell to $8238, under pressure from the rise in inventories, renewed doubts about China's demand prospects and the strengthening of the dollar. Towards the end of the month, LME copper tested $8716, the highest level since August 1, with the support of the weakening dollar following industrial profit increases in China and strengthening expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2024. LME copper closed December with a 1.09% gain at $8562.
LME copper, which stopped its three-session series of declines in the 49th week due to the strong export data from China and the effect of the weak dollar, finished the week with losses, even though it rose on December 8 with the hope of interest rate cuts that will revive the economy in 2024.
Copper prices gained 2.30% on December 14, recording the biggest daily gain in almost a year, supported by the weak dollar and expectations that the US interest rate cuts next year will increase economic growth and demand for the metal. 3M LME copper completed the 50th week at $8525 with a 1.03% gain.
Copper prices rose to $8665 on December 20, with the weakening dollar following the downward revision of economic growth in the USA and increasing hopes for an interest rate cut next year, and completed the 51st week at $8570 with a 0.53% gain.
3M LME Copper tested $8716 towards the end of December, the highest level since August 1, supported by industrial profit increases in leading metal consumer China, strengthening expectations that the Fed is coming to an end of interest rate hikes, production disruptions and a weak dollar. It completed the 52nd week at $8562 with a loss of 0.09% due to the pressure of profit sales from the high level.
3M LME copper traded in the range of $7856-$9550.5 in 2023. Supported by low inventories and hopes that demand in China will increase later in the year, LME copper started 2023 strongly, testing $9550.50 on January 18, the highest level since June 10. Although it fell to $7856 due to demand concerns in China, the largest consumer, and the hawkish attitudes of major central banks towards increasing interest rates, it completed 2023 at $8562 with a 2.25% gain.
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3M LME copper traded in the $8020-$8500 range in November. LME copper, which fell to $8020 under the pressure of Chinese trade data showing that the economic recovery in the world's largest consumer was unstable, rose to $8500 towards the end of the month on supply concerns caused by news of production cuts in major mines in Panama and Peru and hopes that China would extend economic support. and completed November at $8469,5 with a 4.32% gain.
Although 3M LME copper fell to $8080 on the first trading day of November, it recovered its losses with the support of the weakening US dollar after the Fed did not change interest rates and the supply disruptions that increased with the continuation of conflicts in the Middle East, tested $8218 and completed the 44th week at $8168.5 with a 0.96% gain.
With the positive impact of the weakening of the dollar and China's determination to increase imports, 3M LME copper rose to $ 8,260 at the beginning of the 45th week.Although 3M LME copper found support from the weakening dollar before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, it remained under pressure following the economic uncertainty in China, the leading metal consumer, and the hawkish comments of Fed officials, and finished the week with a 1.64% loss at $8034,5.
3M LME copper tested $8321.5, the highest level since October 2, with the positive effect of China's new statements supporting the economy and the US inflation data strengthening the expectations that the Fed's interest rate hikes have come to an end, and completed the 46th week at $8309 with a 2.42% gain.
First Quantum Minerals began maintenance at its Cobre Panama mine on November 23 after supplies of coal and other materials were blocked by protesters. Then, workers at the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru began an "indefinite" strike starting from the 47th week. 3M LME copper tested the highest level since September 15 at $8486 on November 21, supported by supply disruptions and a weak US dollar. The largest consumer maintained most of its gains, supported by economic stimulus announcements in China, finishing the week with a 1.58% gain at $8440.
3M LME copper continued its upward trend in the 48th week and completed November at $8469,5 with a 4.32% premium, supported by the slowing manufacturing activities in China increasing hopes that the government will give more incentives, supply disruptions in major mines in Panama and Peru and losses in the dollar.
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